Bernstein is the top dog in Merril Lynch and this book comes highly recommended. I generally try to buy books from Investment professionals who actually have invested and have lot of insight. Stay away from CNBC talking heads who make money by teaching you how to invest but not have invested a penny.
Chapter 1. What Is Noise?
- Noise is more information without better information.
- Timely information isnt necessarily better information
- Noise Obscures insight
- Hype: Goals of information providers and information users are not necessarily same. Eg- Author clearly points out that CNBC heads most important task it to get max viewers and retain so they peddle the most entertaining but useless info to viewers.
- Noise is Expensive Eg- Basically people trade on the noise and lose thier well established positions and thus incur taxes, loss and transaction fees.
Chapter 2. The Risks of Do-It-Yourself Investing: What You Don't Know Could Hurt Your Performance.
- Data Mining: Eureka! or Fool's Gold - He goes into the field of how researchers datamine historical results and come out with new stratergies like low p/e or low p/s or even dog of the dow theories. Often these strtaergies end up being inadequate.
- Looking At a Stratergy- Look for out of sample testing- Instead of testing a stratergy for 30 years take an arbitrary number like 1975-1980 and start testing it.
- I'm a disciplines investor but my stratergy is not working- He begins to challenge the so called disciplned investors and say that they could have not been so disciplined. Also he cautions people to not change stratergies in the middle as the old one begins to start working. Finally people will be left with series of underperforming ones.
Chapter 3. Noise and Expectations: What Goes Around, Comes Around.
- The Earnings Expectations Life Cycle
- Contrarians
- Positive Earning Surprises
- Positive Earning Surprise Models
- Estimate Revisions
- Earnings Momentum
- Growth
- Torpedoed
- Negative Earning Surprise Model
- Negative Earning Surprises
- Dogs
- Neglect
- Go back to Contrarians on top
Chapter 4. Noise and Long-Term Investment Planning.
Chapter 5. Noise and Diversification.
Chapter 6. Noise, Risk, and Risk Assessment.
Chapter 7. Investment Losses, Time Horizon, and Risk.
Chapter 8. Don't Search for Good Companies, Search for Good Stocks.
Chapter 9. What Makes a Good Analysts?
Chapter 10. Growth and Value and Noise.
Chapter 11. A Preflight Checklist.
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